Indonesia prepares to execute B40 in January
Because case, costs might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will require additional 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI states
Malaysia palm oil criteria at greatest considering that mid-2022
India might withdraw import tax trek amid inflation, Mistry states
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard price)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recuperate in 2025 after an this year, but rates are anticipated to stay elevated due to planned expansion of the nation's biodiesel mandate, market experts said.
The palm oil benchmark cost in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to lower fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in leading producer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric heaps compared to an estimated drop of just over a million loads this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study company Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million lots next year after a 2.5 million load drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, provide from elsewhere and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip slightly next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million tons in 2024.
"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 because combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke stated.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The rate rise in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated extra feedstock of around 3 million lots will be needed for B40 execution, eroding export supply.
The existing palm oil premium has actually already triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric ton in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest given that mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and incredibly bullish, we need to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods business Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian rate around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to
consider postponing
B40 execution on concern about its effect on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import responsibility walking
imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, However Biodiesel
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